Introduction
The following guidance explains what BFCM Score values represent and how to interpret them. The goal is to provide a clear framework for understanding whether paid and email marketing during BFCM Week were effective, and what actions should be taken as a result.
About Score Values
Each score ranges from 0 to 100.
Scores are calculated using uplift modeling, comparing two cohorts:
Shoppers exposed to a marketing intervention (e.g., receiving an email, seeing a paid ad).
Shoppers not exposed to the intervention.
A score of 50 represents equilibrium—no measurable difference between the two cohorts.
Scores above 50 mean the intervention produced a positive lift, with the exposed cohort outperforming the control group.
Scores below 50 mean the intervention underperformed, with exposed shoppers performing worse than those who were not exposed.
Score Interpretation
Score Value
Score values are interpreted in accordance with the table below:
Score Value | Interpretation | Indicator |
0 - 20 | Very Poor | total non-alignment with the brand potential |
21 - 40 | Poor | results below brand potential |
41 - 60 | Fair | in line with brand potential |
61 - 80 | Good | exceeding brand potential |
81 - 100 | Excellent | as good as it gets |
Priorities
In general your BFCM game plan should focus on improving overall and lifecycle stage scores according to the priority schedule below:
Score Value | Priority |
0 - 20 | Very High |
21 - 40 | High |
41 - 60 | Moderate |
61 - 80 | Low |
81 - 100 | None |
Furthermore, even if your scores fall within an acceptable value range, you should also consider the spread of lifecycle scores—the gap between the highest and lowest—as a secondary priority criterion.
Score Spread | Priority | Indicator |
0 - 5 | Low | Consistent performance across all lifecycle stages |
6 - 10 | Moderate | Significant untapped optimization potential |
10+ | High | Urgent need to improve the weakest lifecycle stage |
Act without delay if your overall score, any lifecycle stage score, or the lifecycle score spread is flagged as high priority.
For more actionable insights, evaluate paid and email marketing channels separately.
Share of All Revenue
The percentage indicates the level of dependency on performance marketing during BGCM week:
Share of All Revenue | Dependency |
0 - 20% | Very Low |
21% - 40% | Low |
41%- 60% | Moderate |
61% - 80% | High |
81% - 100% | Very High |
Lift Analysis
To evaluate BFCM Week performance, we compare scores across two time intervals:
Pre-BFCM Baseline (30 days before BFCM Week)
BFCM Week (Thanksgiving Day through following Wednesday)
Scores are evaluated both at the overall level and across lifecycle-based sub-components (Acquisition, Engagement, Monetization, Retention).
Lift
Lift is defined as the difference between the BFCM Week score and the Pre-BFCM score.
It shows whether the brand improved or declined in performance during BFCM compared to the baseline period.
Lift Interpretation
Lift Value
Score values are interpreted in accordance with the table below:
Lift Range | Interpretation |
11+ | Great pickup |
+4 to +10 | Fair pickup |
+1 to +3 | Limited pickup |
0 to -3 | Moderate disconnect |
-4 to -10 | Major disconnect |
-11 or worse | Very big disconnect |
Priorities
Score values are interpreted in accordance with the table below:
Lift Range | Interpretation |
11+ | Low Priority |
+4 to +10 | Priority |
+1 to +3 | High Priority |
-1 to -3 | Very High Priority |
-4 or worse | Top Priority |
Furthermore, even if your scores fall within an acceptable value range, you should also consider the spread of lifecycle scores—the gap between the highest and lowest—as a secondary priority criterion:
Lift Spread | Priority |
0 - 5 | Low |
6 - 10 | Moderate |
10+ | High |
Act without delay if your overall lift, any lifecycle stage lift, or the lifecycle lift spread is flagged as high priority.
For more actionable insights, evaluate paid and email marketing channels separately.
Handling Missing Data
Not all results will always be available. Missing data can occur due to incomplete Google Analytics setup, insufficient historical data, or other tracking gaps. When this happens, follow these guidelines:
Clearly Acknowledge Absence
If a metric or score is missing, explicitly state “Data not available” instead of leaving the field blank or forcing a zero value. This avoids misinterpretation.Preserve Comparability
Where possible, show available metrics side by side even if others are missing. Example:If Engagement and Monetization scores are available but Acquisition is missing, show the two available scores and annotate the gap.
Avoid Artificial Bias
Do not substitute averages or carry-forward values unless explicitly instructed. Missing data should not imply better or worse performance.Communicate Actionability
When data is missing, add a short interpretation note such as:
“Acquisition score is not available. This limits visibility into how new shoppers responded during BFCM Week. Please review your Google Analytics setup to capture future results.”Overall Score Handling
If key lifecycle stages or revenue data are missing and overall score cannot be fairly calculated, label the overall score as “Incomplete” and provide a short explanation.
Conclusion
By using BFCM Scores and Lift analysis, brands can move beyond surface-level metrics and gain a true picture of how they marketing impacts shopper behavior. This approach makes performance both quantifiable and actionable, guiding future improvements in BFCM strategy.